Final Four Forecast

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By Cedric Meyer

There’s one question I ask myself every March during the NCAA tournament: Can I get a mulligan? Despite numerous hours lobbying, the answer is always the same and I’m left staring at a bracket that resembles a scene from a Wes Craven slasher film.

Not this year.

I’ll start by handing the East region to North Carolina. Roy Williams and the Tar Heels have dismantled both their opponents, Mt. St. Mary’s and Arkansas, by an average margin of 35 points. The Tar Heels dominance lies in Ty Lawson’s ability to push the ball up the floor making their pace unmatchable for anyone in their quarter of the bracket. They’re well balanced with four players averaging double figures. Couple that with the excess rest from two blowouts wins and the Heels will stroll to the Final Four in San Antonio.

Moving to the South region one thing is clear; No. 1 Memphis isn’t built for a Final Four run. While watching Mississippi St. push Memphis to the brink on Sunday, CBS flashed an interesting stat: “Only one team since 1985 has won the NCAA title with a free throw percentage under 65 percent.” The Tigers shoot an abysmal 60 percent as a team with no individual over the 70 percent mark. Under the bright lights and mounting pressure that goes with advancing in the tournament this flaw will only be further exploited.

Further, playing in Conference USA leaves John Calipari’s Tigers anything but battle tested. Road games at Marshall, Rice, and Tulsa are about as hostile as a cat fashion show. With games against Michigan St. and either Texas or Stanford looming, the Tigers are a prime candidate to get bounced in the near future.

So who wins the South? I’ll take Texas’ guard tandem of D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams over the Lopez brothers of Stanford. The Longhorns really found their stride late in the season and have the most impressive resume with wins over UCLA, Tennessee, and Kansas- all whom advanced to the Sweet 16.

The Midwest region provided us with further proof to adage that guard play rules in March. No. 10 Davidson, led by Stephen Curry, pulled the biggest upset of the tournament so far by beating No. 2 Georgetown, a team that made the Final Four last March. Scottie Reynolds and No. 12 Villanova were able to overcome the size of No. 5 Clemson.

However, neither will reach the storybook ending they’re looking for. Beating Clemson and the surprising Sienna Saints was nice, but No. 1 Kansas is in a completely different class than Villanova.

“We have the talent to be as good a team as we've had,” Kansas coach Bill Self said, “or better.”

That’s a pretty auspicious compliment considering Jayhawk’s esteemed basketball history. I’ll take his word for it and Kansas’ stable of long, athletic front court to roll into San Antonio.

The No. 1 UCLA Bruins are the basketball version of the LSU Tigers: a good squad, but sometimes frustratingly erratic in addition to being adept at giving their fans heart attacks. The other constant is their ability to continue finding ways to win. Diaper dandy Kevin Love is their main cog, but not the Bruin’s only threat. Like Carolina they receive double-digit contributions from four players.

UCLA prides themselves on defense. Since January 26 the Bruins have remarkably only allowed two teams over 70 points in a span of 17 games. The Bruins should ease past cinderella No. 12 Western Kentucky in the Sweet 16.

Nationally, everyone’s favorite to win the West other than UCLA is No. 3 Xavier. It doesn’t mean they don’t have questions. Their tournament resume including only playing three games against ranked opponents all season is hardly impressive. The Musketeers also don’t have the greatest offensive game, which could be amplified against a team like UCLA. But they play extremely well as a team and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them come out the West region. Notwithstanding, I’m not a big enough believer in them to pick against UCLA.

The Final Four match ups are set beginning with UCLA and Texas. UCLA has won more games this season than any team in Bruin history; alas, it won’t yield them a championship. Texas’ three-point proficiency will prove too much for UCLA, just as it did when the Horns hooked the Bruins at Pauley Pavilion in their first meeting this season. Texas also has the home court advantage with the Final Four being held in San Antonio.

The other match up, Kansas and North Carolina, is a match up college basketball fans dream of with two iconic programs on the game’s biggest stage. It’s one of those games that you don’t care the outcome, but you’ll clear your schedule to watch. But since not picking a side is undeniably lame, I’ll go with Lawson and the Tar Heels.

North Carolina and Texas is an intriguing Final. The duel between Lawson and Augustin would be nothing short of classic. They’re not only connected by being great players, but a recruiting battle that took place coming out of high school. The short story goes that Lawson and Augustin were the top point guards in the nation being recruited by Coach Williams and the Tar Heels. Williams decided Lawson would be a better fit and as a result Augustin signed with Texas.

I’ll take Augustin, his motivation, the home court advantage and the Longhorns as your 2008 NCAA National Champions.

Originally Published: Issue 601 - March 26, 2008

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